Compiled by Perplexity

The Trump-Xi summit ended Thursday with a polite communique, a promise that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open" and a private assurance from Xi Jinping that China will not send military equipment to Tehran — but the chokepoint is still effectively closed, an Indian-flagged tanker was attacked off Oman the same day, and at $4.53-a-gallon gasoline the American consumer's wallet keeps thinning even as the headline numbers say otherwise.

April retail sales rose for a third straight month. Walmart confirmed it will start raising prices by the end of May because of tariffs that a federal appeals court has now allowed Washington to keep collecting. The airport industry warned that summer fares will stay high as a jet fuel crunch deepens. And U.S. beer sales just had their worst week of the year. Five storylines, one ledger — here is the top of the news.

A summit produces words on Hormuz, not yet a ship

The two-day Beijing summit closed Friday with President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping telling reporters they "feel very similar on Iran" and want the war ended, as CBS News reported from the meeting. According to the White House readout, "The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy," Xi made clear China's opposition "to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use," and "both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."

The most consumer-relevant line from the meeting did not appear in the formal statement. Trump told Fox News that Xi assured him China would "not going to give [Iran] military equipment" — "a big statement," the president said, "He said that today. That's a big statement. He said that strongly," according to CBS's transcript of the interview. Xi also "expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the Strait in the future," the White House said.

Markets noticed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, traveling with the president, told CNBC it is "highly advantageous" for Beijing to see the strait reopened and "I think they will be working with, behind the scenes, to the extent anyone has any say over the Iranian leadership." Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, kept his line of attack alive in New Delhi: "As far as we are concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is open for all, you know, commercial vessels," he said, but "they need to cooperate with our navy forces," per CBS News. Reports from Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said Tehran has been letting some Chinese ships through after direct conversations with Beijing's foreign minister and ambassador.

The same day the leaders shook hands, two ships were attacked. An Indian-flagged vessel was struck off the coast of Oman, and a separate commercial ship was taken by "unauthorized personnel" 38 nautical miles off the United Arab Emirates and pointed toward Iranian waters, a U.K. maritime agency told CBS News. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the broader U.S. campaign had "significantly degrade[d]" Iran's ability to halt commerce, as quoted by CBS, but "their voice is very loud, and those threats are clearly heard by the merchant industry and the insurance industry."

The American consumer just won't stop spending

Census Bureau data released Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.5 percent in April and were up by the same amount once automobiles and fuel were stripped out, The New York Times reported.

It was the third consecutive monthly gain, Bloomberg said, following a revised 1.6 percent jump in March. The Bloomberg report noted the figures are not adjusted for inflation, so part of the increase reflects higher prices rather than larger basket sizes.

The Times found stubborn strength in discretionary spending. "Sales advanced in discretionary segments, such as electronics, which counters the narrative of consumers cutting back," it noted. Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, told The Times the picture is one of "a fairly bulletproof consumer overall" — Americans, he added, are "generally … not changing their behavior much" in response to the war in Iran.

The Wall Street Journal's read was more cautious: it described retailers' growth as having "cooled last month," pointing to the slower rise in gasoline prices as the main reason for the moderation.

The "bulletproof" customer is not universally distributed. The Times observed that "consumer spending has been largely driven by affluent households for years," and that even as outlays rise, paychecks "are struggling to keep pace with rising inflation" and "public sentiment among consumers is notably poor."

Walmart says price hikes start by month's end as appeals court saves Trump's tariffs

The biggest American retailer used its earnings call to do something most chains have spent the spring trying to avoid: tell shoppers the bill is coming. Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said customers should expect price increases by the end of May, with "more significant" hikes likely in June, Reuters reported, as the company tries to absorb tariff costs on container imports from China.

Same-store sales rose 4.5 percent in the quarter, and adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share beat the 58-cent analyst consensus, but the company withheld second-quarter profit guidance. Chief Executive Doug McMillon said the chain would try to keep tariff costs from rolling onto food prices.

Walmart is not alone. Walmart said general-merchandise inflation in its stores ran above 3 percent in the most recent quarter, up from 1.7 percent in the summer, CBS News reported, and Columbia Sportswear had told analysts earlier this spring it would push spring and fall prices up by a "high single-digit percent." Walmart's CFO blamed the climb on tariffs: "tariff-related costs lifted prices across many categories," he told analysts, as quoted by CBS News.

The retailer's warning lands the same week the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit gave the administration room to keep collecting the 10 percent global tariff that a lower court had struck down.

The appellate court issued an administrative stay on Tuesday in the case brought by two importers and a coalition of 24 states, The Wall Street Journal reported, allowing the levies to remain in force while the appeal moves forward. Bloomberg confirmed that the pause keeps officials collecting the tariffs during the litigation. The administration asked the court for a decision by Friday.

A jet fuel crunch is locking in a painful summer for travelers

The Iran war's most visible consumer side-effect is the gas pump. Its less visible one is at the airport. The near-halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz "has disrupted oil exports from the Persian Gulf, forcing refineries elsewhere to cut production of jet fuel and its base ingredient, kerosene," Bloomberg reported.

More than 10 percent of the world's jet fuel and kerosene is normally produced in the Middle East, and Bloomberg said Mideast refiners "have struggled to deliver cargoes to buyers outside the region."

Airports Council International, the global airport trade body, told Bloomberg this week that higher fuel and ticket costs "are threatening to push airlines to cut more flights and disrupt summer travel." Stefano Baronci, the group's director general for Asia Pacific and the Middle East, said in remarks reported by Bloomberg that "higher prices are destroying demand and passengers should brace for airfares to stay higher."

The warning lands as travel demand is otherwise holding up: AAA still expects a record number of Memorial Day road-trip drivers despite "surging pump prices," Bloomberg said, suggesting Americans plan to drive even where they can no longer afford to fly.

Sentiment hits a new record low — and consumers are starting to skip the beer

The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer sentiment index slid to 48.2, a fresh all-time low and below the 49.7 reading economists had expected, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Journal said the dip undercut even April's record-low print, and that "rising gasoline prices intensified worries regarding the U.S. economy."

The fingerprints of that pessimism are now showing up in volume data for one of the most price-elastic discretionary purchases in the store. Nielsen data covering the week ending May 2 showed sales of beer, flavored malt beverages and cider down 6.3 percent year over year on a two- and four-week trailing basis, CNBC reported.

Beer sales had already slipped about 3 percent between November and mid-April. Bernstein analysts found convenience-store chains saw sales drop roughly 9 percent year over year in the two weeks after April 26. California — where pump prices are the highest in the nation — had the steepest fall, with beer volume down 16 percent over the four weeks ending May 2; Arizona's volume was off 10 percent. AB InBev's Michelob Ultra has held volume steady, but Bud Light and Budweiser are facing double-digit declines, CNBC said, and Constellation Brands is taking share.

Nadine Sarwat, the Bernstein analyst, drew a tidy line from the gas pump to the cooler. "We observe a negative correlation between the current gas prices in a state and the sequential trend in beer/FMB/cider growth," she told CNBC. "The additional weakness in beer/FMB/cider seems to be emerging in other beverage categories as well, potentially indicating increasing cyclical pressures on the U.S. consumer." The University of Michigan survey CNBC cited found that one-third of respondents named gasoline as their single biggest economic concern.

The bigger picture

Read together, Thursday's five stories sketch the same economy from five angles. Diplomatically, the United States got the most it was going to get out of Beijing — a Hormuz statement, a private no-arms pledge from Xi, an expression of Chinese interest in buying more American oil. None of it has reopened the strait, and ships are still being attacked at sea.

Statistically, the consumer kept buying in April for the third month in a row. Operationally, Walmart admitted what cardholders are about to see at the register, and a federal appeals court let the tariffs that drive those prices keep running. Aerially, the jet fuel that vacationers will need in July is being rationed today. And behaviorally, sentiment is now lower than it was during the 2008 financial crisis or the 2022 inflation peak, and Americans, finally, are quietly putting a six-pack back on the shelf. The summit produced words; the spreadsheet is still doing its own talking.